According to the director of the CIA, Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to gain time as he determines how to handle Yevgeny Prighozin.
The Wagner mercenary group’s leader, Mr. Prigozhin, oversaw a mutiny in Russia a month ago.
According to CIA Director William Burns, that revolt showed significant flaws in Putin’s command structure.
He warned the Aspen Security Forum that the Russian president might yet seek revenge on Mr. Prigozhin.
The CIA director stated on Thursday that “what we are seeing is a very complicated dance.”
When questioned about a recent video that appeared to show the Wagner leader in Belarus, Mr. Prigozhin admitted that he had recently travelled to both Russia and the capital of Belarus, Minsk.
According to Mr. Burns, Mr. Putin is probably trying to buy some time as he decides how to handle the Wagner group’s leader.
It seemed expected that Mr. Putin would try to distance the group from its head because that mercenary force continues to be valuable to the leadership of Russia in regions like Africa, Libya, and Syria.
And the director of the CIA noted that Mr. Putin might postpone taking vengeance.
According to Mr. Burns, Putin typically believes that retribution is best served cold. I would be astonished if Prigozhin escaped more retaliation since, in my opinion, Putin is the supreme proponent of payback.
US President Joe Biden made the suggestion earlier last month that the Wagner boss might be poisoned.
“If I were him, I’d watch what I ate. I’d keep an eye on my menu,” the president joked.
If I were Prigozhin, I wouldn’t fire my food tester, the CIA director echoed.
According to Mr. Burns, who confirmed earlier claims, the intelligence service did indeed have early information of the rebellion.
The CIA director also said that Sergei Surovikin, a senior Russian army commander who was rumoured to have been aware of the Wagner rebellion in advance, did not currently have “freedom of movement.”
The mutiny was the most overt attack Mr. Putin has faced in his 23 years in power, including by explicitly attacking the Kremlin’s reason for the war in Ukraine, with Mr. Prigozhin asserting that it had been founded on lies, Mr. Burns said.
The CIA director noted that what made the transaction with the former chef of Russia’s leader particularly extraordinary.
Mr. Prigozhin is frequently referred to as “Putin’s chef” because, before to creating the Wagner organisation, he gained notoriety by cooking for Mr. Putin and the military.
According to Mr. Burns, Mr. Putin has portrayed himself as the guarantor of order in Russia, so the 36-hour mutiny will have left many wondering “whether the emperor had no clothes or at least why is it taking him so long to get dressed.”
This would have aroused deeper doubts in the Russian elite about Mr. Putin’s judgement that have existed since his choice to start a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
According to him, more Russians might pay attention to Mr. Prigozhin’s criticism of the war if Ukraine makes additional strides on the battlefield.
The CIA director stated that given that offence was more difficult than defence and the Russians had months to prepare, it should not be surprising that Ukraine’s counter-offensive was proving to be a “hard slog”.
Making progress will be difficult and require time. But I’m an optimist,” Mr. Burns added.
By striking Black Sea commerce and then blaming it on the Ukrainians, he added, there were indications that Russia might be committing a false flag operation.
