China and Russia hope to advance their agendas during the BRICS summit

At a conference this week in South Africa, Russia and China will seek to advance their political and economic interests in the developing world. A foreseen united dosage of anti-Western grumbling from them may take on a more acerbic edge with a formal attempt to reduce the gap with Saudi Arabia.

The BRICS economic bloc, which consists of leaders from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, will meet for three days in Sandton, Johannesburg’s financial district. Chinese premier Xi Jinping’s attendance highlights the diplomatic resources his country has invested in the group over the past eight or nine years as a vehicle for its aspirations.

Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, will appear via video link after his trip to South Africa was hampered by an arrest order issued by the International Criminal Court for him in connection with the conflict in Ukraine. Xi will attend the summit along with the leaders of Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, India’s Narendra Modi, and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa.

The main summit on Wednesday, as well as side talks on Tuesday and Thursday, are anticipated to result in general demands for greater collaboration among nations in the Global South amid their growing displeasure over what they perceive to be the Western hegemony over international institutions.

Russia, China, and other nations are more than happy to support that viewpoint. To provide Xi and Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister who will represent Putin in South Africa, a sizable audience, leaders or representatives of dozens more developing nations are scheduled to attend the side meetings in Africa’s richest city.

The planned extension of the BRICS bloc, which was founded in 2009 by the rising market nations of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and included South Africa the following year, will be one specific policy topic with more immediate repercussions that will be considered and possibly agreed.

More than 20 nations have formally applied to join BRICS in another potential expansion, according to South African officials, and Saudi Arabia is one of them. In an especially icy geopolitical environment and following Beijing’s recent move to exert some influence in the Persian Gulf, any effort to include the second-largest oil producer in the world in an economic bloc with Russia and China would undoubtedly draw attention from the United States and its allies.

Talmiz Ahmad, a former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said that Saudi Arabia’s entry into BRICS will give the organisation “extraordinary importance.”

A moral triumph for the Russian and Chinese vision for the group as a counterbalance to the G-7, analysts claim, is even a consensus on the premise of expanding BRICS, which already includes a sizable portion of the largest economies in emerging nations.

In light of China’s economic tension with the United States and Russia’s Cold War-like standoff with the West over the conflict in Ukraine, both support the addition of more nations to strengthen some sort of alliance, even if it is only symbolic.

Along with the Saudis, a number of other countries—including Argentina, Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Indonesia, and the United Arab Emirates—have formally sought to join. These countries could become new members.

If many of them are admitted, “then you end up with a bigger economic bloc, and from that a sense of power,” said Prof. Alexis Habiyaremye of the College of Business and Economics at the University of Johannesburg.

Although South Africa, Brazil, and India are less enthusiastic about joining what is currently an exclusive developing world club and having their influence eroded, there is momentum for it. The five nations must first agree on the requirements new members must meet because nothing has been decided. In light of Beijing’s insistence, it is on the Johannesburg agenda.

Chen Xiaodong, China’s ambassador to South Africa, declared that “BRICS expansion has become the top trending issue at the moment.” “Expansion is essential for improving the viability of the BRICS system. I think this year’s summit will mark a fresh and significant advancement in this area.

In an effort to balance any disproportionate Russian and Chinese influence coming from BRICS, the U.S. has emphasised its bilateral relationships with South Africa, Brazil, and India. In the lead-up to the meeting, the State Department claimed that the US was “deeply engaged with many of the leading members of the BRICS association.”

The European Union will closely monitor events in Johannesburg as well, but will mostly be focused on the conflict in Ukraine and the bloc’s ongoing efforts to get widespread criticism for Russia’s incursion from the developing world, an effort that has so far largely failed.

According to Peter Stano, a spokesman for the European Commission, the EU is urging Xi, Lula, Modi, and Ramaphosa to use their meeting as an opportunity to uphold international law.

To curb Putin’s unlawful and unstable behaviour, Stano added, “We look forward to their contribution.”

There won’t be any public condemnation of Russia or Putin over the war, if a June meeting of the BRICS foreign ministers in Cape Town, the forerunner to the major summit, is any indication. The only protest that will likely be heard is one that the Ukrainian Association of South Africa and the rights organisation Amnesty International are planning to hold outside the Sandton Convention Centre.

If anything, Russia may view the summit as a chance to gain some favour.

Putin may use the BRICS summit to announce additional free Russian grain shipments to developing countries, as he has already done for a number of African countries, according to Maria Snegovaya, senior fellow at the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Programme at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies. This comes after Putin last month halted a deal allowing the passage of grain out of Ukraine.

Snegovaya claimed that by excluding Ukraine from the plan, Putin would be able to show “goodwill” to the developing globe.

Putin will have “full-fledged participation” in the meeting despite being visible via video link, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, and he would deliver a speech.

The developing world’s complaints about the current international financial systems are also likely to come up frequently throughout the course of the three days in Johannesburg. In the months and weeks preceding up to the summit, this has been reduced to a criticism of the U.S. dollar’s hegemony as the dominant currency for global trade.

The majority of BRICS experts agree that the bloc’s inability to implement policy is caused by the five nations’ dissimilar economic and political priorities as well as the conflicts and competition between China and India.

The China Global South Project, which monitors Chinese participation in the developing world, analyst Cobus van Staden said that an emphasis on increasing trade in local currencies is something that all of them can support.

He views this conference as a whole and the BRICS as promoting a shift away from the dollar in some regional trade in the world.

Nothing in this is the great blade that will slay the dollar. Van Staden remarked, “That’s not the play. “It’s a number of paper cuts, not one massive sword wound. While it won’t destroy the dollar, it is unquestionably complicating things in the world.

“They don’t need to defeat the dollar, and they don’t need to defeat the G7,” the speaker said. All they really want to do is present an option. He explained that the play was much longer.