France Warns of Potential Collapse in Lebanon Amid Escalating Crisis

France has issued a stark warning about the risk of Lebanon’s collapse as the nation grapples with severe political, economic, and social challenges. Learn more about France’s concerns and Lebanon’s fragile situation.

French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu warned on Monday that Lebanon faces the risk of collapsing and descending into civil war. In recent weeks, this Middle Eastern nation—once under French administration during part of the 20th century—has turned into a battleground between Israel and Hezbollah militants.

In an interview with the LCI news channel, Lecornu emphasized that establishing a ceasefire in Lebanon is “essential for our collective security.”

Israel and Hezbollah have intermittently exchanged fire since Israel initiated a military operation in Gaza following a deadly incursion by Hamas on October 7 last year. In September, Israel intensified its actions against Hezbollah with the launch of Operation Northern Arrows, targeting the group in Southern Lebanon.

According to the UN Refugee Agency, one million individuals have been compelled to leave their homes in Lebanon seeking safety. The Lebanese Health Ministry has reported that Israeli attacks on the country have resulted in nearly 2,500 fatalities as of Saturday.

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Lecornu stated, “Our current stance is largely influenced by the fear of an impending civil war in Lebanon.” He further remarked, “It’s evident that Lebanon could deteriorate even more than it already has.”

Earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron urged the United States and the European Union to “halt arms deliveries” to Israel. He emphasized the importance of finding a “political solution” to the Middle East crisis and cautioned that Lebanon could become “a new Gaza.”

France is set to host an international conference on Lebanon this Thursday in Paris. The French Foreign Ministry stated that the goal of the gathering is “to rally the international community” to offer emergency aid to the Lebanese people and explore methods for “supporting the country’s institutions,” with a particular focus on its armed forces. According to AFP, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati plans to seek “security assistance” addressing “everything concerning the army and internal security forces” during his participation at this event.

Hezbollah is a Lebanese Shia Islamist organization that functions both as a political party and a militant group. Its political faction holds seats in Lebanon’s Parliament and participates in the government, while its military component is considered to be more powerful than the Lebanese Army.

The Israeli Foreign Ministry and the IDF assert that recent airstrikes have “eliminated” almost all of Hezbollah’s top military leaders. Additionally, Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s leader, was killed in an airstrike in Beirut late last month.

In 1920, Lebanon fell under French control and officially declared its independence in November 1943. Nonetheless, full independence was only achieved when French troops completed their withdrawal from the country in August 1946.