A new report warns that 33 million Nigerians will face food insecurity in 2025 due to economic challenges and climate change. Learn more about the factors driving this crisis and its potential impact.
By 2025, food insecurity in Nigeria is expected to intensify, potentially leaving over 33 million Nigerians facing hunger.
The nation’s current population is approximately 223.8 million.
A report from Cadre Harmonisé, conducted by the Federal Government with support from partners, has warned of worsening food security in Nigeria. It projects that 33.1 million people will experience severe levels of food insecurity during the upcoming lean season (June-August 2025).
Analysis revealed that the 33.1 million people constitute an increase of seven million compared to the same period last year.
The increase in the projection was influenced by ongoing economic difficulties, unprecedented inflation levels, effects of climate change, and continuous violence in the northeastern states.
According to the report, around 25.1 million people are expected to face food insecurity from October to December 2024, even during the height of the harvest season. Of these individuals, approximately 3.8 million reside in the northeastern states; this number is anticipated to increase to 5 million by 2025.
Across the nation, the number of individuals experiencing Emergency levels (Phase 4) of food insecurity is projected to rise. Although no groups have been categorized as facing a ‘Catastrophe (Phase 5),’ those at risk in ‘Emergency (Phase 4)’ are expected to grow from 1 million during the lean season of 2024 to approximately 1.8 million in 2025, indicating an increase of around 80 percent.
Around 5.4 million children and close to 800,000 pregnant or breastfeeding women in the hardest-hit states—Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe in the northeast; Sokoto, Katsina, and Zamfara in the northwest—are at risk of acute malnutrition or wasting. Among these individuals, approximately 1.8 million children could experience severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and need immediate nutritional support.
The report stated: “The Cadre Harmonisé food and nutrition insecurity analysis, conducted by the Nigerian government with support from partners, warns of worsening food security in Nigeria. An estimated 133.1 million people are projected to experience severe levels of food insecurity during the upcoming lean season (June-August).”
This represents an alarming increase of seven million people compared to the same period last year, driven by economic hardship combined with record-high inflation, the effects of climate change, and ongoing violence in the northeastern states.
Across the country, the number of individuals facing emergency levels (Phase 4) of food insecurity is expected to rise. Although no groups have been categorized as experiencing catastrophe (Phase 5), those in an emergency situation (Phase 4) are projected to grow from one million during the peak of the lean season in 2024 to 1.8 million at that time in 2025—an increase of approximately 80 percent.
Around 5.4 million children and almost 800,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women are at risk of acute malnutrition or wasting in six severely affected states: Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe in the northeast, along with Sokoto, Katsina, and Zamfara in the northwest.
Among these, a concerning 1.8 million children may experience severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and need urgent nutritional intervention.
Drivers of food security in Nigeria face various factors that continue to worsen the situation.
The situation of food insecurity, driven by economic hardship and unprecedented inflation rates—reaching 40.9% for food and 34.2% across all items in June 2024—has become increasingly severe.
The country’s hunger crisis has been exacerbated by multiple factors, particularly economic hardship and unprecedented inflation rates. As of June 2024, food prices have surged with an inflation rate reaching 40.9 percent, while the overall item index stands at 34.2 percent.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that in October 2024, the price of beans was up by 282 percent compared to the previous year, and local rice experienced a rise of 153 percent.
These economic shocks are attributed to factors such as the ongoing devaluation of the Naira against the US dollar, external economic influences, and last year’s removal of the fuel subsidy.
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Climate change impacts, especially flooding, are among the key factors contributing to current and anticipated food insecurity. These events increase the costs of both food and essential non-food commodities and services.
Between October 1 and 15, 2024, the FAO reported that floods impacted more than 9.2 million individuals and inundated approximately 4.5 million hectares of land, including around 1.6 million hectares dedicated to agriculture.
Analysis suggests that annual production losses for maize, sorghum, and rice in flooded areas could reach 1.1 million tonnes—sufficient to feed 13 million people for a year—with financial impacts approaching USD 1 billion.
Ongoing violence in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe (BAY) significantly restricts food availability and access. Furthermore, armed banditry and kidnappings in the northwest along with clashes between farmers and herders in north-central states such as Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna, Benue, Plateau,and Niger intensify existing economic challenges.
Since 2018, the northeast has experienced consistently high or increasing levels of food insecurity, with over 4 million more people needing urgent assistance during each lean season since June 2020. The northwest and parts of the north-central region are now experiencing critical severe food insecurity and malnutrition levels, designating them as hunger hotspots that require immediate attention from decision-makers.
Dr. Temitope Fashedemi, the permanent secretary of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, standing in for Dr. Nuhu Kilishi Mohammed, director of nutrition and food security, highlighted the crucial role of Cadre Harmonisé in planning interventions for food and nutrition security across the nation.
Dominique Koffy Kouacou, the interim representative of FAO in Nigeria and ECOWAS, reaffirmed FAO’s dedication to assisting Nigeria. He stated that “FAO is committed to collaborating with our partners to implement long-lasting solutions addressing the root causes of food insecurity and malnutrition. By improving agri-food systems, we strive not only to meet immediate needs but also foster sustainable progress.”
Emphasizing the persistent problem, David Stevenson, WFP’s country representative, stated: “The hunger crisis in Nigeria necessitates immediate focus due to conflicts in the northeast. Achieving peace is crucial for realizing the region’s potential as a major agricultural hub.”
The urgency of the situation was highlighted by UNICEF’s country representative, Ms. Cristian Munduate, who emphasized that “children are central to this crisis and risk suffering irreversible physical and cognitive harm or even death. It is our responsibility to uphold every child’s right to proper food and nutrition.”
The United Nations urged the Nigerian Government, donors, and stakeholders to allocate resources in order to avert a looming food and nutrition crisis. They stressed the urgency for immediate support across multiple sectors.
The report comes in the wake of a $50 million support from the World Bank to address Nigeria’s food nutrition challenges.
During a meeting with Vice President Kashim Shettima at the Presidential Villa in Abuja on Tuesday, World Bank Country Director Ndiame Diop disclosed this information.
Diop stated that the fund was designated under the Accelerating Nutrition Results in Nigeria (ANRiN) project 2.0 program, which serves as a crisis response initiative.
