Farooq Kperogi writes on how Tinubu’s real troubles are just beginning amid ongoing protests. Read the insightful analysis here.
I predicted the current growing social unrest in Nigeria due to the planned surge of petrol prices dubbed as “subsidy removal” by President’s administration, which even his opponents had pledged to execute and Nigerians had accepted it readily.
In my column dated April 29, 2023, I expressed to Tinubu that his governance task would be strenuous if the increase in petrol price exacerbated public suffering. Subsequently, I reiterated this position through more than six columns with a similar subject matter.
Taking away subsidies from crucial products like petrol that have a profound impact on every aspect of life in Nigeria – a country that is constantly battling India for the title of the world’s poorest nation – and then devaluing their national currency significantly, despite being heavily reliant on imports, leads to deep-seated problems. These issues force large sections of society into an inevitable choice between survival or succumbing to dire circumstances.
Offering false reassurances that the widespread suffering in the nation is fleeting, or that current struggles are merely stepping stones to forthcoming success, or even suggesting there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon only intensifies people’s distress. This can be attributed to two factors.
It is a widely held belief that in Nigeria, as seen during IBB’s detrimental SAP and elsewhere in developing nations controlled by the IMF and World Bank with their economic policies, there has yet to be an instance where such suffering transformed into benefits for the general population. Tinubu only repackaged and renamed this approach.
Furthermore, those who are not part of the elite class have become aware that it is solely the impoverished population that has been experiencing hardship. For instance, Tinubu acquired a multi-million-dollar presidential aircraft even before the submissive National Assembly had approved it in their customary wasteful spending practices amidst an ongoing economic crisis.
Those who inflict hardship upon the less fortunate in anticipation of a brighter future are radiating with radiant bulbs of enlightenment. Although they possess intellect, it is evident that they anticipate not illumination at the end of this melancholic passage, but rather an inferno – a dismal pit overflowing with despair and hopelessness.
Once individuals arrive at this understanding, they require no external patronage to engage in protests. The hunger pangs within them alone are enough to motivate their participation in such demonstrations. Moreover, the overwhelming feeling of despair that envelops them serves as a far more potent impetus for protesting than even the manipulative tactics employed by politicians.
Even if it’s accurate that opposition politicians are exploiting the widespread dissatisfaction in the nation to weaken and discredit the government for their own benefit, this is not against the law. In fact, within democracies, it is a fundamental aspect of opposition parties to capitalize on incumbents’ mistakes as an opportunity to replace them.
President Tinubu holds power today due to his skill in exploiting the mistakes of previous officeholders for personal political progression. In 2012, he orchestrated a turbulent demonstration against former President Goodluck Jonathan which resulted in casualties among protesters and mirrored the actions he is currently executing towards Nigerians.
It is futile to try and convince or bribe traditional rulers, religious leaders, union heads, or activists into accepting the unnecessary suffering caused by cruel economic policies. Such heartless implementations only result in death for the people – protests may be delayed but are inevitable nonetheless.
Tinubu must undo the grave harm caused by his policies to regain credibility and restore public confidence. The majority of our population is no longer concerned with advancement or revitalization, they simply desire Tinubu to return them to their previous state – an unenviable position from which he began. Meeting this expectation should not pose as insurmountable a challenge.
On February 10, 2024, I wrote a column entitled “Why Tinubu Can’t Govern Like Buhari: Hunger Protests,” in which I warned that the spontaneous outbursts of communal anger in Minna, Suleja, Kano and Osogbo due to hunger were an indication not to be ignored by Tinubu. However he chose to overlook it.
It is likely that he’s patterned his approach after Buhari, who implements disliked policies and counts on uncritical supporters to shelter him from the repercussions of his decisions. However, unlike Tinubu, he has no loyal base of followers – a fact I’m content about; thus making me wary about figures like Peter Obi or Rabiu Kwankwaso assuming presidency.
Their devout supporters lack critical thinking skills and become irrationally upset at any mild criticism of their political cult leaders, who they have blindly idolized to the point of abandoning reason. Similar to Buharists, these followers worship their chosen political deity with a fervor that overrides logic or objectivity.
I am sharing a section of the column as a reminder to Tinubu that he cannot reap the same benefits of immunity that Buhari did.
If Muhammadu Buhari was the current president instead of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, it is likely that any negative repercussions from the present challenges would be quelled and only faint whispers heard. This is because being a political cult leader, his devoted followers relinquish personal duty to him whilst worshiping him with fervor. In contrast, Tinubu does not hold such sway over others.
Steve Taylor, a psychologist, coined the term “abdication syndrome” to describe how individuals are inclined to place unwavering and naive faith in influential figures such as political leaders or opinion influencers. This behavior mirrors that of children who view their parents as perfect role models without flaws or imperfections.
Taylor contends that the origin of “abdication syndrome” revolves around an innate wish for certain individuals to revert back to their early formative years, when they held their parents in high infallible esteem. These same guardians were viewed as all-powerful figures who governed over every aspect of their life and made sure they remained secure from dangers present within the world at large. Individuals affected by this syndrome are endeavoring to reconnect with a state reminiscent of devote servitude and spontaneous liberty seen throughout childhood.
Buhari’s fortuitous advantage of the abdication syndrome permeating Muslim northern Nigeria allowed him to evade repercussions for eight years. This phenomenon aptly accounts why protests supporting, instead of opposing his drastic petrol price hikes in 2016 occurred across regions like Kano and Bauchi. The unprecedented support for such policies is unparalleled in Nigerian history.
Protests against the ongoing violence and kidnappings in northern Nigeria during Buhari’s presidency have even resulted in counter-protests from individuals who blindly support him, despite abandoning rational thinking.
Tinubu faces a unique challenge in Nigeria wherein he does not have the privilege of abdication syndrome and must also deal with the specific traits of Muslim northern Nigerians. This includes reacting strongly to ineffective policies only when they stem from individuals who do not originate from our area.
The fact that the hunger protests against the Tinubu administration originated in and then spread throughout Northern regions should come as no shock.
Tinubu’s weak emotional support base was revealed by the fact that even his home state of Osun, where he lost to PDP’s Atiku Abukakar in the last presidential election, joined in the hunger protests. If opposition sparks a nationwide upheaval against his ruthless neoliberal economic policies, Tinubu cannot rely on Southwest as its stronghold.
I venture to guess that if Tinubu’s insensitive policies lead to a national crisis like the one we witnessed during Goodluck Jonathan’s presidency in 2012, the Southwest region will not remain indifferent and may even participate.
Tinubu is facing significant unpopularity in the Southeast, South-south regions and amongst Christian communities in northern Nigeria. This implies that Tinubu is struggling to stay afloat in an extremely difficult and precarious social situation.
Compassionate governance is not only his sole defense against danger. While the release of thousands of metric tons of grains represents a positive initial move, it falls short in quelling the growing unrest permeating throughout the country and merely postpones its occurrence.
Without a comprehensive, well-coordinated public transport system in place, Nigeria cannot endure the complete elimination of petrol subsidies. The government needs to establish an environment where owning a car and utilizing commercial transportation is considered luxury before abolishing petroleum subsidies.
Farooq Kperogi is an esteemed columnist from Nigeria who currently serves as a Professor of Journalism in the United States.
