A recent poll shows Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in several key states, indicating a shift in voter sentiment and potentially impacting the upcoming election dynamics.
According to a poll by the New York Times on Saturday, Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of former President Donald Trump in swing states Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. However, based on the sampling data provided by the poll, it’s possible that the actual race could be much tighter.
The Siena College Research Institute conducted a survey of almost 2,000 potential voters and discovered that across all three states, Harris prevailed over Trump with a 50% to 46% margin. The poll was carried out from August 5 to August 9 during the week when Harris revealed her running mate as Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
From 1992 to 2016, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan consistently supported the Democratic Party. However, Trump’s victory in all three states defied almost every poll. Although President Joe Biden successfully flipped these Rust Belt states back in 2020 by slim margins. Winning either of Pennsylvania’s electoral votes or combining Michigan and Wisconsin’s total votes will be crucial for both Harris and Trump to secure a win in this year’s election.
Despite the poll’s indication of Harris potentially winning all three states by a large margin, an analysis of its methodology implies that her lead may not be as substantial. Specifically, in Michigan, 45% of participants voted for Biden during the previous election compared to Trump’s 39%. However, these results depict an illusionary perception since Biden won Michigan with less than a three-point lead instead of six points according to the poll.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin exhibit comparable discrepancies, as indicated by the poll’s data which suggests that Biden secured a victory of five points in Pennsylvania during 2020, whereas he only won with a margin of 1.2%, while the same polling outcome projected an eight-point lead for him in Wisconsin rather than just 0.6%.
Considering the oversampling of Democrats, Harris and Trump are tied in a statistical dead heat across all three states.
Despite this, there are numerous polls indicating Harris is gaining ground on Trump. RealClearPolitics has compiled an average of several polls which shows that currently, Harris leads Trump by 0.5% across the nation. In contrast to this, just before suspending his reelection campaign last month, Biden trailed behind Trump by about three points.
Although she has not released any policy stances or answered inquiries from reporters since declaring her candidacy, Harris’ approval rating has increased to 48%, up from 36% in February as per earlier New York Times/Siena surveys. Presently, Trump’s favorability stands at 46%, a slight boost from his previous rating of 44% in February.
