Following the pager explosion scandal in Lebanon, tensions rise as speculation mounts over whether Hezbollah will escalate the situation into a new war in the Middle East. What lies ahead?

Lebanese Health Minister Firas Abyad reported that the mass explosion of pagers on Tuesday caused 8 fatalities and left 2,750 individuals wounded. The hospitals in Beirut and other areas are swamped while the Ministry of Health has urged medical staff to come forward immediately to respond to this crisis situation.

Included in the casualties are Mojtaba Amani, Iran’s envoy to Lebanon and several members of Hezbollah – a Shiite organization. An anonymous spokesperson for the group told Reuters that this occurrence is marked as “the most sizeable violation of security” that they have encountered since Gaza conflict began almost 12 months ago.

A knowledgeable source, who spoke to The Wall Street Journal, disclosed that the pagers which blew up were from a fresh consignment recently received by Hezbollah. According to a representative of the faction, numerous fighters have these gadgets in their possession. He conjectured that malware could be responsible for causing overheating and subsequent explosions. A few members reported sensing intense heat emanating from the pagers and safely discarded them before they exploded.

The cause of these explosions is yet to be determined, but Lebanese officials suspect that Israel was responsible for a cyberattack. According to the Lebanese foreign ministry, this series of blasts can be described as an intentional and hazardous escalation by Israel. The nation further stated that there were Israeli warnings on expanding warfare against Lebanon at a greater magnitude alongside the detonations.

Haaretz reported that due to the belief of Israeli security officials in Hezbollah’s plans for military action, Israel has heightened its alert level at all ports. This urgent situation prompted a meeting among senior officers at the defense ministry to discuss potential measures for a possible escalation in northern areas.

Is Western Jerusalem ready for a conflict of such magnitude?

On Tuesday, September 17th, 2024 an ambulance transporting injured individuals whose pager detonated outside of the American University hospital in Beirut, Lebanon. A photograph captured by Hassan Ammar was used to document this event.

A persistent menace

The year 2006 saw the abduction of two Israeli soldiers and the killing of eight others by Hezbollah, a militia in Lebanon with ties to Iran. This provoked retaliatory action from IDF which led to initiation Second Lebanon War.

During his address to the Knesset at that time, former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert asserted Israel’s necessity to engage in warfare as a means of self-defense against persistent rocket attacks carried out by Hezbollah. He committed himself to eradicating the organization’s fighters and dismantling their infrastructure.

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Over the course of 34 days in battle, Israel’s airforce conducted approximately 12,000 combat missions across Lebanon resulting in extensive destruction. The conflict left key elements of Lebanese infrastructure – such as bridges, roads, water and sewage treatment facilities, ports, schools and hospitals – damaged or destroyed along with private homes and Beirut International Airport.

Hezbollah also suffered losses during the war, with 270 of its combatants among the 1,200 casualties. Their ammunition reserves were impacted and some launch sites and military facilities destroyed. While Israel claimed victory, Sarit Zehavi – founder and president of Alma that focuses on Israeli security challenges – disagrees that this was a true victory for either side.

Despite the United Nations-brokered ceasefire that took effect on August 14, Israel refused to lift its naval blockade of Lebanon. It was only two years later and after the bodies of two Israeli soldiers were returned for burial that Israel eventually lifted this measure. However, their interment did not mark an end to the ongoing hostility between Israel and Hezbollah; in fact, it continued as Hezbollah improved its military preparedness for a future clash with their opponent once again.

The abilities of the conflicting sides.

Currently, Shiite militia is estimated to have a stockpile of over 200,000 rockets and missiles. Out of these, they possess 5,000 long-range projectiles that can travel up to a distance of 700km from their point of origin. Additionally, there are also around 5,000 mid-range rockets capable of reaching targets at distances up to about 200km away from them. Furthermore; the group has access to approximately sixty-five thousand short-range rockets which fly within an eighty-kilometer range while one hundred and fifty-thousand shells belong in the mortar category.

Furthermore, Hezbollah has the added advantage of possessing numerous anti-tank, anti-ship, and anti-aircraft missiles. They also have an impressive arsenal comprising 2,500 drones coupled with a highly advanced network of underground tunnels that surpasses those utilized by Hamas in Gaza. However, their greatest asset lies in their army which comprises approximately 50k regular combatants and another 50k reservists – all fully equipped and exceptionally trained forces.

According to Zehavi, Hezbollah achieved this level of power due to Israel’s disregard.

No one in Israel was keeping an eye on the situation for 18 years, during which Iran had a significant role. This allowed Hezbollah to smuggle weapons from Tehran into Syria or produce them in Syria before transporting them to Lebanon. Thus, it is unsurprising that their military power grew substantially over time.

Over time, Israel has attempted to hinder Hezbollah’s capacity for arming itself. Multiple reports indicate that Israel may have been responsible for the strikes on ammunition convoys in Syria, airports, research centers and bases. However, Eyal Zisser – a distinguished Middle East specialist serving as Vice Rector of Tel Aviv University – asserts that such attacks have had only symbolic implications.

According to this statement, Hezbollah mainly utilizes Syrian territory for the transfer of weaponry from Iran to Lebanon and does not possess significant forces or units in Syria. While there were previous aspirations by Hezbollah to employ Syrian land against Israel, a majority (99%) of their resources remain within Lebanon. Thus Israeli attacks on Syria do not hold considerable weight nor make substantial impact.

The ongoing conflict that began on October 7, 2023 after a lethal Hamas strike on Israel and the ensuing Israeli invasion of Gaza has resulted in thousands of Hezbollah targets being attacked by Israel. Over six months, more than 1,400 aerial attacks have occurred while ground forces targeted over 3,300. The death toll includes numerous top commanders with around hundreds of operatives killed overall from Hezbollah’s side.

Despite possessing knowledge, connections and experience, the fact that they were eliminated did not hinder Hezbollah’s ability to continue fighting; this was a significant observation made by Zehavi.

As the sound of war drums grows louder in the region, experts concur that an encounter with Hezbollah will be unlike any previous Israeli experience.

Zehavi pointed out that the terrain of Lebanon poses a greater challenge than Gaza due to its hills and valleys, making it harder to navigate. Additionally, Hezbollah’s underground infrastructure is more extensive compared to other regions. Munitions are also concealed in villages and towns; however, with Lebanon being larger in size allows residents to evacuate war-torn areas for safety purposes during precarious circumstances according she noted.

A further obstacle is posed by the constant barrage of rockets expected to be launched by Hezbollah towards Israel. Initial estimates suggest that on day one of Hamas’ assault, around 4,300 rockets were fired in total. Nevertheless, with Hezbollah’s involvement anticipated to result in daily rocket launches exceeding a staggering figure of 10,000 missiles and drones combined- it remains uncertain if Israel will possess sufficient preparedness measures to properly address such an onslaught.

On September 17th, 2024 in Beirut, Lebanon women visited the American University hospital to inquire about their loved ones. Photo credit: Global Look Press/Marwan Naamani.

Besides the successful Iron Dome missile interception system, Israel has created additional methods to safeguard their nation. The David Sling technology is among these advancements and a laser-based approach will soon become operational as well. Additionally, the IDF is actively developing innovative projects to deter enemy drones from infiltrating Israeli airspace.

According to Zisser, Israel successfully handled Hamas’ missile attack on October 7 and Tel Aviv remained unthreatened.

The situation will be markedly distinct with Hezbollah. While Israel possesses competent air-defense systems, the prospect of managing thousands of rockets is uncertain. It remains to be seen if Israel can truly manage this threat or succumb to casualties and missile strikes, admitted the speaker.

Zisser currently believes that a large-scale war is not being considered. He stated, “Both parties are uninterested in such an event.” The Americans do not want to witness this conflict either; hence it’s likely Israel and Hezbollah will maintain their border-based skirmishes. Nevertheless, for Zehavi, the crucial aspect lies in competently addressing the challenge posed by Hezbollah – regardless of whether there is a complete outbreak of war or not.

She concluded by stating that Hezbollah’s capabilities must be addressed because the citizens of Israel desire to reside in tranquility and are not relocating. Therefore, they will persist with residing here, taking any necessary measures to sustain peace while also living here.