A political showdown looms between Northern and Southern lawmakers over President Tinubu’s controversial tax reforms as the National Assembly reconvenes.
Following a two-week recess, members of the National Assembly have returned to Abuja, with President Bola Tinubu’s tax bills appearing to be their top priority.
The National Assembly is currently reviewing four tax reform bills.
Nonetheless, discussions about them seem to be split between the North and the South.
The four bills—the Nigeria Tax Bill 2024, the Tax Administration Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Service Establishment Bill, and the Joint Revenue Board Establishment Bill—are presently under consideration in both chambers of the National Assembly for approval.
During the weekend, Rabiu Kwankwaso, the presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), sparked significant controversy regarding tax bills. He described these bills as a scheme by Lagos State to seize control over Kano’s taxes and urged lawmakers from Kano to “stay vigilant.”
Mr. Kwankwaso is the most recent northern politician to express concern about the bills.
It should be remembered that the Northern Governors’ Forum had directed their lawmakers to oppose the bills.
The disagreement regarding the bills centers on how they propose to distribute the Value Added Tax.
The policy of allocating 60 percent of VAT revenue based on the derivation principle is causing debate.
Some governors from the northern region contend that this arrangement would benefit Lagos State, as it is home to many company headquarters.
Taiwo Oyedele, who serves as the chairman of the presidential committee, has repeatedly refuted this assertion. He emphasizes that the proposals in these bills are likely to be more advantageous for northern states. During one interview, he mentioned that Lagos State would experience the greatest impact from these bills.
However, OBASANJONEWS discovered that a significant number of lawmakers are still not persuaded.
On Monday, Mr. Oyedele attended the House to provide lawmakers with a detailed explanation of the bills’ implications.
In this report, OBASANJONEWST examines the regional makeup of the Senate and House of Representatives to assess each region’s strength.
While voice votes are commonly employed to settle matters, the Senate in the last Assembly had to resort to voting for a contentious component of the Electoral Bill.
The Upper House of the United States Congress
In the Senate, when all 109 members are in attendance, passing tax bills requires 55 votes. However, a quorum is achieved with just 37 senators present.
The composition of the Senate reveals that the Northern region, including one senator from the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), has 57 senators, while the Southern region is represented by 51 senators.
READ ALSO: Tax Reform Bills Will Be Passed and Are Not ‘Dead on Arrival,’ Assures Jibrin
North-West: Twenty-one senators
Northeast: 18 senators
North-Central region: 18 senators
South-West: Eighteen senators
South-South: A total of 18 senators
South-East: Fifteen senators
The review indicates that the North has higher numbers. Nevertheless, it is not a uniform region; states such as Kogi, Kwara, Benue, Nasarawa, and Plateau in the North-Central might have different voting patterns compared to those in the core Northern areas of the North-East and North-West.
These five North-Central states collectively have 15 senators.
Removing this from the North would leave it with 43 senators.
The South is also not uniform. DAILY POST discovered that certain states in the region, especially those producing oil, might support the bills.
A cohesive southern coalition, along with the North-Central region, could provide the necessary support for the bills to pass in the Senate.
In the midst of this, Senator Ali Ndume has been outspoken about the bills and recently asserted that they would be “dead on arrival.”
The issue at hand is whether Mr. Ndume has sufficient support to guarantee the defeat of the bills.
The Residence
More individuals have expressed their support for the bills in the House. Abdulmumin Jibrin, an NNPP member from Kano State, noted last week that lawmakers from the North plan to support these bills as they align with regional interests.
It remains uncertain whether he will retain his position now that Mr. Kwankwaso, the NNPP’s political leader, has spoken.
In the meantime, Philip Agbese, who serves as the deputy spokesperson for the House, has been quite outspoken in his endorsement of the bills. In a recent statement, he expressed that lawmakers will back these pieces of legislation and will oppose any attempts by governors to lobby against them.
In the House of Representatives, we firmly believe that nothing can prevent us from backing President Bola Tinubu in revitalizing the economy for the benefit of our nation.
“We are coming together, regardless of party affiliation, to ensure the country functions effectively. This reflects Speaker Tajudeen Abbas’s approach.”
He mentioned that certain governors are issuing threats to members in their states, even going so far as to say they might deny them the opportunity for re-election in 2027 if they back the bills.
To pass a bill when all 360 members are present, a total of 181 votes is needed.
Ultimately, the outcome of the bills is likely to be determined by those who are most vocal on the floor. Consequently, it remains a game of numbers.
A regional analysis of the lawmakers:
The North holds the majority in the House, with a total of 190 seats.
Northwest: 91 seats
Northeast: 48 seats
North-Central: 51 positions
The South comprises a total of 170 seats, distributed in the following manner:
South-West region: 71 seats
55 seats in the South-South region
South-East region: 44 seats
Similar to the Senate, the entire region might not vote uniformly.
For example, in the North-Central region, numerous lawmakers frequently adopt stances that differ from those of the core North. If you exclude the votes from the North-Central, the remaining count for the Northern region is 139 votes.
The South has 170 votes, which is 20 fewer than the North’s total.
