NIMET Warns of Mid-Year Flooding in Lagos, Ogun, Delta, and Other States

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) has issued a warning for potential mid-year flooding in Lagos, Ogun, Delta, and several other states. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures.

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has unveiled its 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), forecasting early rainfall for several southern states, including Lagos, Ogun, Delta, and Rivers, alongside nine others. Meanwhile, eight northern states—Plateau, Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa, and Kwara—are expected to experience a delayed onset of rainfall.

The report was presented in Abuja by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo (SAN). According to the SCP, states such as Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Anambra, and parts of Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Lagos, Edo, Enugu, Imo, and Ebonyi will witness early rainfall between February 23 and March 10. Conversely, the cessation of rainfall across the country is predicted to occur between October 6 and December 17.

NiMet also issued a warning about high-intensity rainfall in May and June, which could lead to flash floods in coastal areas. Keyamo emphasized that pre-onset rainfall activities should not be mistaken for the actual start of the rainy season. He advised farmers and others reliant on rainfall to consult NiMet’s predicted onset dates for accurate guidance.

Key Highlights of the 2025 SCP:

1. Rainfall Onset and Cessation:
   • Early onset is expected in southern states like Delta, Bayelsa, Rivers, Anambra, and parts of Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Lagos, Edo, Enugu, Imo, and Ebonyi.
   • Delayed onset is predicted for Plateau, Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa, and Kwara.
   • The end of the rainy season will be earlier than average in states like Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, Plateau, Bauchi, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Taraba, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, FCT, Ekiti, and Ondo.
   • A delayed end of the season is expected in parts of Kaduna, Nasarawa, Benue, Lagos, Kwara, Taraba, Oyo, Ogun, Cross River, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu.
2. Rainy Season Length:
   • Most parts of the country will experience a normal length of the rainy season.
   • Borno and parts of Yobe may have a shorter-than-normal season.
   • Lagos and Nasarawa are likely to have a longer-than-normal rainy season.
3. Annual Rainfall:
   • Most regions will see normal to below-normal annual rainfall compared to the long-term average.
   • Above-normal rainfall is expected in parts of Kebbi, Kaduna, Ebonyi, Cross River, Lagos, Abia, Akwa Ibom, and the FCT.
4. Dry Spells and Temperature Trends:
   • Severe dry spells of over 15 days are predicted in Oyo State during April-May-June.
   • Moderate dry spells (up to 15 days) are expected in Ekiti, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Anambra, Imo, Abia, Cross River, Delta, Bayelsa, and Akwa Ibom.
   • Northern states may experience severe dry spells lasting up to 21 days during June-July-August.
   • The “August Break” (Little Dry Season) is expected to begin in late July, with severe effects in parts of Lagos and Ogun.
   • Temperatures are predicted to be warmer than the long-term average from February to May, with cooler-than-normal conditions in April for most regions.

Importance of the SCP:

Keyamo highlighted the significance of the SCP in enhancing food security, disaster preparedness, and public health. He noted that timely climate predictions enable farmers to optimize planting schedules, disaster managers to mitigate risks, and health authorities to anticipate weather-related disease outbreaks. The SCP also serves as an early warning tool for governments and stakeholders to prepare for potential hazards such as floods, droughts, and extreme temperatures.

Stakeholder Collaboration:

NiMet’s Director General, Prof. Charles Anosike, stressed the importance of stakeholder engagement in utilizing the SCP effectively. He emphasized that the predictions require actionable uptake and feedback for continuous improvement.

The Director General of the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), Zubaida Umar, underscored the critical role of NiMet’s SCP in disaster risk management. She noted that early warning information derived from the SCP has been instrumental in mitigating the impacts of annual flood disasters in Nigeria.