In the Sub-Saharan region, Nigeria saw the highest decline in terrorism-related fatalities in 2022.
Nigeria dropped two spots from its position in 2022 to 8th in the most recent Global Terrorism Index (GTI) report, which indicates that the country’s ranking has risen.
The yearly study from the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) offers a thorough overview of the major global terrorism trends and patterns since 2000 and makes an attempt to rank nations based on their involvement in terrorism.
Nigeria has fallen down the list of countries most affected by terrorism, according to the index for 2023, as a result of a steady drop in the number of terrorist-related deaths.
Ethiopia was the most improved nation in the Sub-Saharan region in 2022, continuing to report no deaths from terrorism for the sixth year in a row. In 2022, Al-Shabaab carried out two assaults in Ethiopia, however there were no reported casualties.
In the area, Nigeria saw the biggest decline in terrorism-related fatalities in 2022. From 497 in 2021 to 385 in 2022, deaths decreased by almost a quarter, reaching their lowest level in Nigeria since 2011.
This drop in fatalities was mostly caused by a significant drop in deaths attributable to ISWA, which carried out 57 assaults in 2022 as opposed to 79 in 2021.
The GTI also revealed that during the past two years, the Sahel has experienced a shift in the geographical dynamics of terrorism.
“In the past, ISWA and Boko Haram were primarily responsible for the majority of the terrorist action in northeastern Nigeria, which also includes Chad, Cameroon, and Niger.
The number of terrorist killings in Nigeria’s Borno State and the nearby nations of Chad, Niger, and Cameroon has decreased since 2020.
Yet, there are signs that the geographic dynamics of terrorism in the Sahel are changing from northeastern Nigeria to the triangle formed by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. This indicates that terrorism is becoming more transnational throughout the Sahel and beyond to coastal West Africa.
“Groups like IS and JNIM are looking for new operating bases and safe havens. Several of these new locations resemble regions in Mali, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and other places from where jihadi organisations first arose over ten years ago in terms of demographics, economies, and natural conditions.
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“This trend is not consistent, although both Niger and Nigeria saw increases in their rankings. The Gambia, Senegal, and other Sahelian countries continue to endure little or no terrorism.
The rise of IS affiliates and JNIM has also caused a sharp increase in mortality in the tri-border region of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger (also known as Liptako-Gourma). Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger became the focus of Sahelian terrorism between 2012 and 2022.
Before that, the number of deaths in Nigeria reached a peak in 2014 at 2,101 before falling in five of the next nine years. Following 865 terrorist-related fatalities in 2020, Nigeria had a 43% drop in 2021 and a 35% drop in 2022.
Even if circumstances in Nigeria appear to be getting better, analysts claim that armed extremist organisations like Boko Haram and ISWA continue to constitute a serious threat to the nation.
With a 14% drop in terrorist-related fatalities from the year before, Borno State has seen a significant improvement in terrorism as a result of the demise of Boko Haram. Moreover, attacks in the state reduced by 47%, from 91 to 48, respectively.
With 40 occurrences and 168 deaths in 2022, ISWA is currently the most significant group in Borno State, followed by Boko Haram with six incidents and 63 deaths. Nonetheless, the state continues to be the most severely affected area in Nigeria by terrorism, accounting for 60% of all fatalities caused by terrorism in 2022.
In Borno State, where gunmen slaughtered 50 people who were allegedly providing security authorities with information about the terrorists’ whereabouts, the bloodiest terror assault of the year took place. ISWA claimed responsibility for the attack and stated that “spies” were the intended target.
According to the GTI, the fight between ISWA and Boko Haram persisted into 2022 when Abubakar Shekau, the group’s commander, passed away in May 2021. Boko Haram’s influence in Nigeria has been drastically reduced as a result of devastating setbacks, a major exodus of fighters to ISWA, as well as counterterrorism initiatives by the Nigerian government and international armed forces.
Because of this, ISWA has greatly increased its strength and has continued to broaden its operational area in north-eastern Nigeria and the Lake Chad region. When terrorist organisations take advantage of tensions brought on by the presidential elections in February, activity by organisations like ISWA is predicted to intensify before, during, and after those elections.
