NIGER COUP: US seeks to hold onto its final and most effective counterterrorism outpost in West Africa

For U.S. Marines stationed at a counterterrorism outpost in an area of West Africa renowned as the world’s epicentre of terrorism, life has gotten more difficult ten days into a coup in Niger.

As the coup leaders demand that Americans request permission for each flight, flights into and out of the nation have been restricted. Every time an aircraft is refuelled due to fuel constraints, the U.S. commander must give his or her approval.

The Biden administration, meanwhile, is demonstrating its intention to stay as numerous European nations withdraw Niger. It views Niger as the United States’ final and most effective counterterrorism outpost in an unpredictable region south of the Sahara Desert. Niger was also a promising democracy prior to the coup.

The Wagner mercenary force from Russia could gain even more power if it is abandoned, along with an increase in Islamist organisations.

As sporadic anti-Western protests began this week as a result of the coup, some European governments closed their embassies and evacuated their citizens on military aircraft, but U.S. ambassadors remained on the ground and sent home non-essential personnel and some family members.

“The American Embassy is now open. Speaking to reporters in Washington, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said, “We expect for it to stay open.

President Joe Biden issued a statement on Thursday urging the Nigerien presidential guards holding the democratically elected leader Mohammed Bazoum to free him and promptly reestablish Niger’s “hard-earned democracy.”

When he visited the country in March, Secretary of State Antony Blinken hailed Niger as “a model of resilience, a model of democracy, and a model of cooperation.” Since then, Blinken has been calling the country’s imprisoned president virtually every day to express support for his safety and return to office.

Bazoum encouraged the U.S. and others to assist Niger in restoring its constitutional order in an opinion article that was published late Thursday in The Washington Post. In the alternative, he cautioned, “the entire central Sahel region could fall to Russian influence via the Wagner Group” and Islamic radicals would exploit the unrest in Niger.

The president stated, “They will step up their efforts to turn our youths against the very partners who are helping us build a more hopeful future by indoctrinating them with hateful anti-Western propaganda.”

The military takeover is now in its second week, but U.S. officials are refusing to openly refer to it as a coup because they still believe in the possibility of a restoration to civilian rule.

The United States’ tough attitude in Niger contrasts with how it has handled other recent international crises and armed takeovers. In April, violence broke out between two competing generals in the neighbouring nation of Sudan. American diplomats and security personnel were among the first foreigners to cease operations in Sudan and depart at that point.

The 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, which is a crucial area for U.S. counterterrorism activities, indicated a government determined to drastically scale back its security commitments in order to concentrate on a key threat, posed by China.

On Thursday, U.S. officials would not specify how far they would go to restore the Nigerian government, including whether they would back any use of force by the ECOWAS security organisation.

John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, stated that “right now, we’re focused on diplomacy.” “We still maintain that there is time and room for that. The window won’t be open for ever. We recognise that. We do, however, think it’s still open. The first line of defence should still be diplomacy.

France, the former colonial power in Niger and the target of much of the anti-Western sentiment there, along with the United States, have threatened to withhold millions of dollars in aid if the new junta does not stand down.

The customary U.S. response of isolation and sanctions when military leaders capture control in West Africa, however, is riskier now given the fervour of the jihadists and forces linked with the Kremlin.

John Lechner, a West Africa analyst and writer for the Wagner Group, saw that more analysts were putting up some sort of intermediary solution, such as the U.S. maintaining security connections in exchange for bare assurances of a return to democracy.

There are still Americans working at American anti-terror outposts in Niger, including members of the 409th Air Expeditionary Group. Both Air Base 101 in Niamey, the nation’s capital, and Air Base 201 in Agadez, a city of more than 100,000 inhabitants on the southern edge of the Sahara, are included in this.

The United States has established Niger as one of its primary regional outposts for extensive drone patrols and other counterterrorism operations against Islamic extremist forces that have in the past taken land, killed civilians, and engaged in combat with foreign troops.

Air Base 201 is a remote, sandstorm-battered region of Niger that acts as a point of entry for travellers and traders to the Sahara Desert. In sandstorms, American military soldiers don face masks and goggles as the dusty sky becomes red or black.

U.S. military personnel have built classrooms for nearby schools in their spare time, established regular English-language discussion groups, assisted villagers in finding a lost 2-year-old girl in a nighttime desert search, challenged a nearby soccer team to a match, provided locals with ‘American snacks’ for International Women’s Day, and provided communities with pencils, prayer mats, soap and other aid in what one sergeant described as ‘a humanitarian effort’, all while enduring temperature

This week, a notification for civil aviation advised that since the coup, refuelling at Agadez had been restricted and that the commander of the 409th had to approve each and every gassing up.

The airspace of Niger was shut down on July 27 by the junta. According to a U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity and who was not authorised to talk in public, the government of the United States has since individually negotiated permission for planes.

According to Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, spokesman for the Pentagon, the majority of American troops stationed in Niger are remaining inside of their military installations rather than engaging in routine training activities.

The Nigerien soldiers have been trained by Americans over many years and with hundreds of millions of dollars.

Four American service men, four Nigerians, and an interpreter were killed in an ambush in 2018 by fighters supporting the Islamic State organisation.

According to ECOWAS, West Africa saw more than 1,800 attacks by extremists in the first half of this year, which resulted in roughly 4,600 fatalities.

Operating in neighbouring Nigeria and Chad is the Islamic terrorist group Boko Haram. Greater dangers are posed by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, an al-Qaida affiliate, and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara along Niger’s borders with Mali and Burkina Faso.

Outside of Afghanistan, that region of the world is probably where IS and AQ affiliates, franchisees, and branches are most active. So, you know, a lot is at stake,” said Colin Clarke, research director at security and intelligence consultant The Soufan Group.

If the coup in Niger succeeds, it will change the best regional alliance for U.S. security forces and give those forces motivation to scale back their presence. Domestic unrest caused by the coup may drive Niger’s forces away from the nation’s frontiers, especially after any U.S. military drawdown, allowing terrorist organisations to advance further into Niger.

Russian Wagner Group mercenaries are already a significant presence in the neighbouring countries of Mali and the Central African Republic, aiding and defending anti-Western governments there. Typically, countries’ mineral resources are taken as compensation by Wagner troops. High-grade uranium ore is one of Niger’s most valuable natural resources.

According to Clarke, Wagner forces are infamously ineffective at battling Islamic militants and employ scorched-earth strategies that simply sway villagers to the jihadists’ side.

And once Wagner has finished taking gold and other resources from a nation, “they’re out, right? Who is there to clean things up then, when the situation has worsened fourfold? he stated.