Tomorrow’s elections won’t proceed in the same way in the five states presided over by G5 governors who are members of the Integrity Group.
The G5 governors, who are all PDP members, decided not to back Sen. Iyorchia Ayu’s bid for the party’s national chairmanship in exchange for their support of Atiku Abubakar in tomorrow’s poll. They have urged that leadership be transferred to the South or that a southerner be elected as national chairman.
The governors are Nyesom Wike (Rivers), Seyi Makinde (Oyo), Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), Ifeanyi Ugwuayi (Enugu), and Samuel Ortom (Benue).
The five states were left up for grabs by other contenders as a result of their choice to not support Atiku.
Oyo
Makinde’s decision not to support Atiku in Oyo State will probably favour Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the presidential candidate for the All Progressives Party (APC), more than Atiku. Atiku (PDP), Peter Obi (LP), and Rabiu Kwankwanso are three further front-runners for the presidency (NNPP).
The following elements will probably influence how people vote in the upcoming presidential election.
The capability of APC
In Oyo State, the APC remains dominant. Notwithstanding the disgruntled members that defected to Accord following contentious primaries, the system is still in place. Sen. Teslim Folarin, the new leader and governorship candidate, has been successful in winning over many people.
The party has been using the setup to canvass the whole state for the presidential candidate. This element will undoubtedly give Tinubu a large number of votes throughout the state.
The appearance of Tinubu
Tinubu has been in charge of the APC in Southwest Nigeria since since the party was founded in 2014. Even the disgruntled members who defected to Accord have sworn to support for him now that he has emerged as a candidate for president because they believe in his leadership and ability to turn Nigeria around.
Makinde welcoming Tinubu with open arms
While Makinde did not formally welcome Atiku to Ibadan during his campaign, he did welcome Tinubu and praised him for having shown ability and paid his dues in Nigerian politics. His supporters see the favourable reception as supporting his aim. Vote for all of our Senate and House of Representatives candidates, he has consistently urged supporters to do. So cast your ballot for inclusivity, equity, and unity in the presidential election. Thus, the majority of Makinde’s supporters will back the APC candidate.
ethnic loyalty
Tinubu will receive thousands of votes in Oyo State due to the fact that he is the only Yoruba among the top four contenders. Many Nigerians believe that his rise coincides with the South-North power balance. For the sake of equality and harmony, many people think that the presidency ought to visit the South.
But, Hazeem Gbolarumi, a PDP leader and one of the campaign coordinators for Atiku for President, predicted that Atiku will prevail. He said that the campaign team’s level of effort rendered Atiku invincible in Oyo State.
Last Thursday’s campaign reception for Tinubu in Ibadan was well received by the crowd, which boded well for success. In order to see the APC candidate, the throng braved eight hours of sweltering sun.
Because to the PDP’s power rotation and divide, Atiku will probably finish in second place. Tinubu has a big number of canvassers in Oyo State, compared to Atiku’s little number. Notwithstanding the fact that PDP has strong support in the state, the aforementioned variables will likely make Atiku’s chances less favourable.
Sen. Soji Akanbi, a prominent Tinubu supporter, said: “We did our best. We have made it known to our people that Tinubu is the most qualified, competent, and courageous candidate. He has the most expertise as well. Regardless of sentiment, he fits like a round peg in a round hole. The only candidate who can save Nigeria is him.
Because millennials view Obi as a representation of the new breed of politicians needed to rebuild Nigeria, he is most likely to finish third.
It is anticipated that NNPP candidate Rabiu Kwankwanso will finish fourth.
Benue
In Benue State, Ortom reportedly announced his support for Obi in addition to declining to campaign for Atiku. His decision was seen as supporting the cause of a power shift to the South.
With the presence of both the APC and PDP in the state, his support for the LP candidate has made Benue a battleground for the APC, PDP, and LP candidates. Obi is currently the third force in the state that cannot be wished away.
Abia
Notwithstanding Ikpeazu’s position, the PDP remains relatively well-liked in Abia. Since 1999, the party has been in charge of the state. Sen. Orji Uzo Kalu, a former governor who joined the APC and was elected to the Senate, was the first governor to do so. He has been working hard to advance the party in the state.
While core PDP members and sympathisers will stick with Atiku out of party loyalty, LP’s Obi is expected to exert some influence in terms of ethnic allegiance.
In addition, the governor hasn’t run a campaign against Atiku.
Enugu
Voting patterns in Enugu State will be influenced by the same variables that affect Abia. Given the aforementioned circumstances, Atiku and Obi are both anticipated to take the lead. Yet it is impossible to wish away the impact of Sen. Chimaroke Nnamani, a former governor, and others who have endorsed Tinubu.
Rivers
Many Nigerians may be surprised by the voting trends in Rivers. According to reports, Wike, the G5 leader, has urged his supporters to endorse Tinubu of the APC. Despite the opinion of observers that his order won’t significantly alter voting patterns, Atiku, Tinubu, and Obi are projected to receive a majority of the votes in Nigeria. In contrast to 2019, APC is predicted to receive a bigger amount of votes this time.
The three presidential contenders came to the state to campaign, and Wike welcomed them inside. In his political career, Atiku never visited Rivers.
Atiku’s chances of a resounding victory in the five states will undoubtedly be harmed by the G5 stance, endangering his chances of winning the election in its whole. Oyo State comes in second in terms of vote power behind Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Kastina, and Rivers. In fact, the 2019 election saw between 700,000 and 800,000 votes cast for APC and PDP candidates in Rivers and Oyo states, respectively.
(NATION)
