Grip of Al-Shabab on Somalia is slipping

Al-Qaida-affiliated extremist organisation al-Shabab has been retreating steadily in Somalia for months, and experts told VOA that this could be the start of their demise.

A “total war” was declared against the organisation in August 2022 by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in a statement that was broadcast on television. Days earlier, the gang had launched a horrific hotel siege in Mogadishu that left at least 21 people dead and more than 100 others injured.

As local tribes in central Somalia revolted against Al Shabab’s presence and persecution in their lands, the president made his declaration.

In several regions of the country since July, military operations by the Somali government have made significant progress against the insurgents.

In the central Somali areas of Hiran, Middle Shabelle, Galmudug, and South-West State, Al-Shabab gave up territory and significant towns. Government representatives claim to have killed more than 2,000 al-Shabab fighters, but VOA was unable to independently confirm this claim.

The Somali government is getting ready to create new frontlines in the country’s south, the defence minister of Somalia said on Friday, as the government campaign approaches its eighth month.

A week ago, government forces in Jubaland State made progress by taking control of the vital settlement of Janay Abdalle from al-Shabab. One of the five federal member states is Somalia, whose border with Kenya is in Jubaland.

Ismail Dahir Osman, a former deputy commander of Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency, claimed in an interview with VOA’s Somali service that al-Shabab has been retreating since the government began backing local clan militias fighting alongside them.

Al-Shabab has been losing territory and former strongholds in central areas since the government offensive began, backed by locals tired of the group’s oppressions.He credited military operations carried out by the Somali government, which were supported by regional clan militias and external allies like the US.

Former Somali intelligence official Colonel Abdullahi Ali Maow told VOA that he concurs that the militants are in decline.

Including Harardhere, a coastal town and old pirate base taken by Somali government forces on January 16, he added, “It is apparent that al-Shabab has been losing ground and was driven out of important towns and villages they have been ruling for more than 10 years.” “I believe it to be the start of their demise,”

Even if the group’s retreat continues, it is not the first time that successive setbacks have hurt a terrorist group’s reputation in Somalia.

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It took place in 2006 when Ethiopian and Transitional Federal Government of Somalia troops joined forces to overthrow the Islamic Courts Union, which had been in control of Mogadishu and vast portions of central and southern Somalia for months.

The more extreme terrorist elements inside the ICU emerged as a result of disarray within the ranks. The result was al-Shabab. The violent group expanded and seized control of considerable areas.

This time is different, according to Hassan Sheikh Ali Nur, a lecturer at the Somali National University in Mogadishu.

“At the time of the ICU, Somalia did not have a strong and internationally recognised government; there was no international military support, including airstrikes by the United States; and more importantly, the Somali people and nationalists did not fully support the government as they perceived Ethiopian troops’ involvement as a foreign invasion,” Nur said.

Analyst of Horn of Africa politics Omar Yusuf Abdulle thinks that al-Aim Shabab’s goal of seizing power in Somalia, toppling the western-backed administration, and enforcing a strict interpretation of Sharia law is dead. He warns that because the extremist group’s ideology alone can inspire attacks, it will continue to pose a security danger for many years to come.

“The gang can still wreak harm despite the recent military defeat since its leaders are still present and they still hold a significant amount of land in southern Somalia.” The eradication of the ideology that fuels the terrorists rests on the total defeat of al-Shabab, according to Abdulle, because the group’s ardent supporters, numbering in the hundreds, are still listening to them.

The government of Somalia also accepts that the deadly ideology is still very much active and anticipates that the group will continue to plan and direct terrorist acts.

A four-day meeting of Muslim scholars was held this week in Mogadishu as part of the government’s triple offensive against al-Shabab, which includes military, financial, and counter-extremist propaganda operations. The session came to an end on Thursday with the formation of the Supreme Council.

At the gathering, more than 300 Muslim clerics expressed their support for the government’s campaign against the Islamist terrorist organisation, which has been at odds with the government since 2007. The misunderstanding of Islam by al-Shabab was strongly condemned by the clerics.

For the first time in a long time, Somali clergy from all branches of Islam united to condemn terrorism. Even the strict Wahhabi sect, which has been suspected of having ties to al-Shabab, participated.

In his closing remarks during the conference, Somali Prime Minister Hamza Barre suggested that the gathering of Somali clergy from various ideological backgrounds would spell the end of al-Religious Shabab’s authority in Somalia.

“This is the first time we have witnessed diverse sects of clerics gathering together and publishing a declaration together against a common enemy.” This will be crucial in winning the war against al-Shabab and other extremist elements. “I’m glad you’ve decided to fight,” he remarked.

Mukhtar Robow, a former al-Shabab deputy leader, was appointed religious affairs minister by Barre last year. His appointment was interpreted as an effort to undermine the ideology of al-Shabab.

VOA