Can Tunisia’s President Secure a Second Term? Analyst Weighs in Ahead of Sunday’s Election

As Tunisia prepares for Sunday’s presidential election, political analysts are contemplating President Kais Saied’s chances of winning a second term. Discover the key issues shaping the election.

With his main opponents either imprisoned or excluded from the ballot, Tunisian President Kais Saied encounters minimal obstacles in securing re-election on Sunday, five years after leveraging an anti-establishment wave to achieve his first term.

The presidential election on October 6 in the North African country marks its third since protests resulted in the ousting of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011. This event made him the first autocrat to be removed during the Arab Spring uprisings, which also led to changes in leadership in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen.

International observers commended the last two contests for adhering to democratic standards. Nonetheless, a series of arrests and measures undertaken by an election authority appointed by Saied have cast doubt on the fairness and freedom of this year’s race. Furthermore, opposition parties have urged supporters to boycott it.

Michael Ayari, the Senior Analyst for Algeria and Tunisia at the International Crisis Group, informed the Associated Press on Friday that uncertainties persist regarding Tunisia’s future path.

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Will Saied’s rule endure indefinitely? That’s the question. Can the political system be changed peacefully, or are Tunisians destined to have a president who remains in power for decades, implementing their agenda and leading the country toward increasing authoritarianism?

However, he noted that President Saied indeed has passionate supporters who view this election as a “pivotal moment.” They see it as an opportunity for Saied to strengthen his “ability to implement his plan to free the country from a form of Western influence.”

Tunisia has preserved its connections with longstanding Western allies while also establishing new partnerships under Saied’s leadership.

Tunisia and Iran have removed visa restrictions and announced plans in May to enhance their trade relations. Additionally, Tunisia has secured millions in loans from China’s Belt and Road Initiative aimed at constructing hospitals, stadiums, and ports.