Armenia struggles with a number of issues following the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh

Tens of thousands of previously homeless people have poured into Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh, a rebel area ruled by Azerbaijan, Armenia’s strongest rival.

The streets of Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, are thronged with demonstrators calling for the resignation of the prime minister. Despite mutual charges, ties with Russia, a longtime ally and protector, have deteriorated.

After being thrown into one of the worst political crises in its decades of freedom following the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union, Armenia currently finds itself dealing with a number of difficulties.

After Azerbaijan launched a quick military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, a region with a majority of ethnic Armenians that has operated independently for three decades, things moved rather quickly.

The separatist troops capitulated in less than 24 hours after being starved of supplies by an Azerbaijani blockade and outnumbered by a military supported by Turkey. Their political leaders announced that they would dissolve their government by the end of the year.

The ethnic Armenians who feared living under Azerbaijani administration were forced to flee in great numbers as a result.

More than 80% of the 120,000 inhabitants of the area hastily packed their belongings and marched in a slow and arduous journey across the one mountain route into poor Armenia, which is struggling to accept them.

They will probably back practically daily demonstrations against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has been accused by the opposition of neglecting to safeguard Nagorno-Karabakh, as they are furious and agitated over the loss of their motherland.

Nikol Pashinyan is the target of a great deal of rage and resentment, according to Laurence Broers, a Chatham House expert on the area.

Their needs for housing, healthcare, and employment must be met immediately by Pashinyan’s economically strained government.

Despite the diaspora’s promises to assist, the landlocked nation has significant logistical and financial challenges.

While many Armenians regard the country’s former senior leaders, who now head the opposition, in contempt and blame them for the current problems, outsiders point to a bloody past.

Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsyan, the parliament speaker, and six other important officials and parliamentarians were killed in 1999 when gunmen stormed the Armenian parliament during a question-and-answer session.

According to Thomas de Waal, a senior scholar at the Carnegie Europe think tank, “political assassination is sort of a tradition in Armenian culture.”

He and other experts point out that one thing working in Pashinyan’s favour is that any seething resentment directed at him is also focused at Russia, Armenia’s biggest supporter.

Following a six-week conflict in 2020 that saw Azerbaijan retake some of Nagorno-Karabakh and the adjacent areas, Russia dispatched roughly 2,000 peacekeepers to the area as part of a truce mediated by the Kremlin.

Pashinyan has said that the peacekeepers failed to stop Azerbaijan’s latest hostilities, which also pose a threat to Armenia’s territorial integrity.

Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict has diminished its regional power and made the Kremlin reluctant to challenge Azerbaijan and its main ally Turkey, a crucial economic partner for Moscow in the face of Western sanctions.

The Russian troops should have attempted to maintain the peace, but instead they essentially stood down, according to de Waal. “Clearly, this Azerbaijani military operation would not have been possible.”

By recognising Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over the area and severing Armenia’s connections to Russia by siding with the West, Pashinyan is accused by the Kremlin of having hastened the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, has long harboured mistrust towards Pashinyan, a former journalist who took office in 2018 after organising the demonstrations that toppled the previous administration.

Even before Azerbaijan’s operation to retake Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia had expressed its displeasure at Armenia for hosting US troops for joint military exercises and moving to recognise the International Criminal Court’s jurisdiction after it indicted Putin for war crimes related to the deportation of children from Ukraine.

After Nagorno-Karabakh fell, tensions worsened as Moscow used foul rhetoric towards Pashinyan that had never been heard before.

The inconsistent posture of the Armenian leadership, which changed its policy and preferred seeking Western help to collaborating closely with Russia and Azerbaijan, was denounced by the Russian foreign ministry.

Russia claimed that “the reckless approach by Nikol Pashinyan’s team understandably fueled discontent among parts of Armenian society, which showed itself in popular protests” while denying any involvement on the part of Moscow in igniting the demonstrations against Pashinyan.

Armenia’s multidimensional and centuries-old relations with Russia are intentionally being attempted to be severed, the report added, turning Armenia into a geopolitical pawn for the West.

It is still unknown if Pashinyan would withdraw Armenia from additional Russia-led alliances as well as the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a grouping of numerous former Soviet states.

Additionally, Armenia is home to a Russian military outpost, and Russian border guards assist in policing Armenia’s border with Turkey.

Despite the deteriorating gulf, Pashinyan has not threatened to sever ties with Moscow, instead emphasising the importance of strengthening security and other ties with the West.

It might be difficult for the US and its allies to take Moscow’s place as Armenia’s primary backer.

One million Armenians are thought to reside in Russia, which is Armenia’s main commercial partner. Pashinyan would face fierce opposition if he attempted to sever ties with Moscow.

In terms of energy supplies and control over important strategic assets, Russia is still very deeply ingrained in the Armenian economy, according to Broers.

“For Armenia to expand its foreign policy, other partners will need to be very creative.”

Their status needs to be discussed with Azerbaijan, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

According to Broers, Azerbaijan may support its initiative to “integrate” the region by allowing a small contingent of Russian peacekeepers to remain in Nagorno-Karabakh.

“This would save Moscow’s face,” he remarked.

This would support the integration strategy that Azerbaijan is promoting.

Although the peacekeepers didn’t try to stop Azerbaijan from regaining Nagorno-Karabakh, their presence in Armenia helps deter any future pressure campaigns on Yerevan by Azerbaijan and Turkey over several contentious matters.

The Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan, which is cut off from the rest of the country by a 40-kilometer (25-mile) stretch of Armenian land, has long desired a corridor from Armenia.

With Turkey and Iran as neighbours, the region has a population of roughly 460,000 people.

Rail and road connections to Nakhchivan that have been blocked off since the commencement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict were supposed to be restored as part of the agreement that ended the 2020 war, but their restoration has stalled due to ongoing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

There have been concerns expressed in Armenia that the corridor may violate its sovereignty, and Azerbaijan has threatened to use force to secure it if Armenia continues to stall on the matter.

Given the very severe military imbalance that currently exists between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the fact that Russia has ostensibly renounced its role as Armenia’s security guarantee, Broers added, “I think there is extreme concern about this in Armenia.”

De Waal observed that on Monday, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan hosted President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey in Nakchivan and spoke “in a rather provocative way” about southern Armenia as a historic Azerbaijani country.

He pointed out that tensions are still high despite strong warnings from Iran and requests from the West for Azerbaijan to respect Armenia’s sovereignty. Iran has also urged Azerbaijan not to use force against Armenia.

The question, according to de Waal, is how far Azerbaijan and Turkey will pursue this issue with possible covert support from Russia.

“Do they actually start using force to try and get what they want, or do they just sort of try and drive Armenia to the bargaining table? Everyone dreads the situation described above.