Monday’s inauguration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ushers in a new era for the country following the failure of the previous president, Muhammadu Buhari, to break the power sector’s curse.
Buhari pledged to revamp Nigeria’s transmission, distribution, and generation subsectors of the power industry upon assuming office in 2015.
Eight years later, he stepped down from his position of authority, leaving the sector unchanged.
According to data from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Agency, NERC, the available power generation capacity in the first quarter of 2022 was 4,712.34 megawatts.
In a country with a population greater than 200 million, the nation’s generation capacity remained between 4,000MW and 5,000MW. In July 2022, the Electricity Distribution Companies could only absorb less than 3,802MW per day of the generated electricity capacity. However, Nigeria requires an enormous electricity supply of 25,000–40,000 megawatts (MW).
Difficulties in Nigeria’s Electricity Sector
Across the transmission, distribution, and generation sectors, Nigeria’s power sector faces challenges.
During the eight years of Buhari’s presidency, the electricity sector was characterized by the ongoing disintegration of the national grid. The grid failed for the 99th time since 2015 on May 15th.
On May 15, 2023, OBASANJONEWS24 reports that the national grid’s capacity fell to 221MW from over 4,500MW. Consequently, only three of the country’s over 16 active plants were connected to the grid at the time: Omotosho was connected with 132.90MW, Omotosho NIPP was also connected with 78MW, and Rivers IPP was connected with a generation of 10MW.
Since 2013 when the electrical sector was privatized, the national grid has failed 130 times.
According to a report by NERC, there were ten national grid failures in 2015. This increased to 28 in 2016, with 21 reported in 2017. NERC listed 13, 4, 4, and 4 cases for 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021, respectively. In addition to other failures that the commission did not record, the grid failed seven times in 2012, among others.
Buhari’s government launched the $2.3 billion Siemens deal, dubbed the Presidential Power Initiative (PPI), in 2020 to increase Nigeria’s electricity generation to 25,000 MW in six years; however, the project has had no effect on the industry five years later.
The challenges prompted Buhari to reshuffle his cabinet, with an emphasis on the Ministry of Power. The ministry was taken from Babatunde Fashola, who served from 2015 to 2019, and given to Mammah Saleh (August 2019 to September 2021) and then Abubakar Aliyu, whose term ended on Monday. Nevertheless, despite Buhari and his men’s efforts, the sector continued to experience setbacks.
Monday, Mr. Kunle Olubiyo, President of Network of Energy Reforms Nigeria, Nigeria Consumer Protection Network, told OBASANJONEWS24 that the Buhari administration’s power triumph had failed on all fronts.
He stated that during the eight years of Buhari’s administration, electricity rates increased by 500% without a corresponding development in the caliber of services provided to consumers.
Between 2016 and 2023, the electricity tariff increased by approximately 500 percent without a corresponding increase in power generation, transmission, and distribution via the national electricity grid.
“Power sector’s failure to maximize the inherent potentials of the sector was largely due to the failure of institutions and overbearing political interferences in the day-to-day business operations of the sector, resulting in an unprecedented and embarrassing decline in power supply to Nigerians.
“During the years under review, regulatory institutions responsible for enforcing market rules, operational rules, and the regulatory framework as a whole failed to perform adequately,” he stated.
Also, Global Power & energy sector policy analyst Bode Fadipe stated that Buhari had not had a significant impact on the nation’s power sector.
He lamented that under Buhari, the market remained in a state of confusion.
He noted that the majority of the challenges Buhari faced in 2015 would be readily available following his departure on Monday.
“In terms of operations, the Buhari administration did not significantly depart from what it encountered on the ground. The market continued to be in a state of confusion.
“From generation to distribution, the challenges that the administration faced when it assumed control in 2015 – three years into the privatisation – were still evident in the final days of the administration.
“The number of grid system outages, the inability of the Siemens project to address operational issues and bring the necessary relief to end users of electricity, the takeover of 6 of the DisCos (Abuja, Kaduna, Kano, Ibadan, Benin, and Port Harcourt) by financial institutions for lending delinquency, the notice of withdrawal of Kaduna DisCo’s licence, the periodic threat by generation companies to withdraw their service, and the disturbing silence from the regulator even as the
Similarly, energy expert Mr. Joseph Eleojo stated that the only change in the power sector under the administration of President Buhari was the increase in electricity rates.
He noted that Buhari’s administration only gave lip service to Nigeria’s electricity production.
“Despite so-called reforms, nothing has changed in the electricity industry. Since the Military regime, the generation for a country with over 200 million people has not exceeded 6,000 Megawatts.
What has changed in the electric power industry? He recently raised prices without a corresponding increase in service. He stated that the Buhari administration only paid verbal service to electricity generation.
Can Tinubu overcome the power industry’s curse?
Monday, during his inaugural address, Tinubu promised that his administration would eliminate the numerous obstacles confronting the country’s electricity sector.
He stated, “Electricity will become more accessible and affordable for both households and businesses.” The generation of electricity should nearly double, and transmission and distribution networks must be enhanced. We will also promote nations to develop local sources.”
How Tinubu would accomplish the aforementioned feat in the power sector remained to be determined.
The Kashimbila Multipurpose Dam, 40MW Hydropower Station and Associated 132KV Switchyard, Transmission Line, and Distribution Substation located in Taraba state, the 50 megawatts (MW) Maiduguri emergency power project, and other projects were completed during the Buhari administration.
Olubiyo advised Tinubu to examine the entire power industry.
According to him, the privatisation project of the country’s power sector failed to produce the intended results, necessitating a drastic course correction.
“The prospective administration should examine the entire scope of the power sector privatisation in its current form, which has failed to produce the intended results despite massive investments.
“Electricity is a significant catalyst for employment creation, industrialization, sustainable growth, and development. “It cannot be overstated how important it is for the incoming administration to get the electricity situation right,” he said.
Eleojo stated that Tinubu must prioritize the generation and distribution of electricity if he is to achieve success on the economic front.
He stated that Tinubu must go beyond rhetoric and implement drastic reforms.
He suggested in particular that the privatization of the DisCos and the national infrastructure be reconsidered.
“The prospective administration should make generation and distribution of electricity its top priority. It should implement more drastic reforms, reevaluate the privatisation of the DisCos, and dismantle the national infrastructure.
“Allow private estates, local governments, and other entrepreneurs to generate and distribute electricity without a NERC license. He stated that NERC’s rules and regulations are one of the main obstacles to electricity generation in Nigeria.
Fadipe, for his part, stated that Tinubu’s government must demonstrate its commitment to the subnational government utilizing the liberalized power sector.
In the transmission, distribution, and generation sectors, the government must aggressively take the initiative.
“It is also essential that the Tinubu administration take deliberate measures to collaborate with subnational governments in order to capitalize on the liberalized power sector.
“It is crucial because, if the national government provides this technical assistance, subnational administrations may be able to utilize the provisions of the Constitution of 1999.
“The Tinubu administration must also scrutinize the sector’s primary regulator in order to rid it of the so-called 1st Born Syndrome.” Typically, firstborns are cautious and have a “yes, sir” mentality. First-borns are administrators rather than leaders. They are frequently silent with the intention of not rocking the canoe.
“We have observed this phenomenon in the primary market regulator. The regulator must lead from the front in the market. A sector that is ten years old should have grown stronger and improved through a constant ascent to greater heights. Unfortunately, we continue to struggle with market launch issues.
“As enticing as it may seem, requesting a review of projects completed in the last eight years will be distracting. Despite this, former supervisors must be held accountable for their actions once they are discovered”, he stated.
As with previous administrations, Tinubu’s administration began with optimism and anticipation; Nigerians are sanguine that the rhetoric will materialize into the fundamental changes necessary to combat the menace in Nigeria’s power sector.
